Mastercard Economics Institute forecasts U.S. retail sales to grow 5.5% from November 1 to December 24, 2026, the strongest holiday growth since 2022. For Florida business owners, the useful question is not whether demand will be there. It is whether customers will find you and trust you before they spend it.
What the forecast actually says
Mastercard projects online sales up 11% and in-store sales up 3.6%, which it describes as the strongest in-store growth in four years. That matters in Florida, where foot traffic, tourism, and seasonal residents all feed the fourth quarter. Both channels are growing, so a business that is only strong in one is leaving money on the table.
This is a national forecast, not a Florida number. Treat it as a signal about consumer mood, then plan around your own numbers from last November and December.
Why AI shoppers favor smaller merchants
The most interesting finding is about how people shop. Mastercard’s research on consumers with paid AI subscriptions found they spread spending across a broader set of merchants, including smaller and boutique retailers. They also tend to buy earlier in the season, especially in travel, clothing, and jewelry.
The categories that benefit include specialty merchants, florists, beauty services, and specialty food stores. If you run one of those in Tampa, Sarasota, Naples, or anywhere else in Florida, AI-assisted shoppers are a real source of new customers. They only reach you if the tools they use can identify you and feel confident recommending you.
Visibility is the first job
Before the season starts, check the basics that AI tools and search engines read. Your business name, address, phone number, hours, and services should match across your website, Google Business Profile, and every directory listing. Mismatched hours or an old phone number is enough to get you skipped.
Then look at your reviews. Recent, specific reviews tell both people and AI tools that you deliver. Ask satisfied customers now, not on December 20.
Relationships close the sale
Visibility gets you considered. Trust gets you chosen. The last week before Christmas is when a lot of in-store spending lands, with Mastercard noting that more than 35% of in-store spending in jewelry, handbags, and cosmetics in a past season happened in the final week. Last-minute buyers rarely comparison shop. They go with someone they have heard of or someone a friend vouched for.
That is where a referral network pays off. Pick five nearby businesses that serve the same customers you do, such as a salon and a photographer, or a restaurant and an event planner. Offer each one a specific introduction and ask for the same. Put it in writing so it is easy to repeat.
A five week plan
Week one: audit your listings and fix inconsistencies. Week two: request reviews from your best customers. Week three: line up referral partners and agree on what you will send each other. Week four: publish a holiday offer page with clear hours, pricing, and a booking or contact option. Week five: follow up with every lead, because most holiday sales are lost to slow replies.
Small Business Saturday falls on November 28 this year. If you want local customers to think of you first, your listings, reviews, and partnerships need to be in place well before then.
Frequently asked questions
Does the Mastercard holiday forecast apply to Florida businesses?
The 5.5% figure is a national forecast for U.S. retail sales excluding autos and gas between November 1 and December 24, 2026. It is not a Florida number, but it sets the tone for consumer spending, and Florida’s retail, hospitality, beauty, and specialty food businesses compete for the same shoppers.
How can a small Florida business get recommended by AI tools this holiday season?
Make sure your business name, services, location, hours, and reviews are consistent everywhere they appear: your website, Google Business Profile, and directory listings. AI tools pull from those sources, so clear and consistent information makes you easier to recommend.
What is the fastest way to add referral business before the holidays?
Pick five nearby businesses that serve the same customers you do, offer each a specific introduction, and ask for the same in return. Warm referrals close faster than cold advertising, and they cost far less.
Get connected before the rush
Florida Professionals Association is Florida’s business growth community. It brings together a statewide network of business owners, real relationships that produce referrals, and help getting found and recommended in AI driven search. Networking groups give you a room, agencies give you tools, and Florida Professionals Association gives you all three. Connected. Trusted. Found.
Become a member or join a free Thursday networking session and start building your holiday pipeline now.
